ANOTHER "WHOOPS" – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:   It was supposed to be a Republican shoo-in, the re-election of Pat Roberts to the U.S. Senate from Kansas, a solid Republican state. 

But there are doubts.  Roberts, an old-time member of the establishment, got rather comfortable in Washington and is encountering headwinds on his way back to the capital.  But until yesterday he was expected finally to prevail.  Now there's a problem.  His Dem opponent has dropped out, and an independent with greater popular support suddently looms large.  From Fox: 

The Democratic candidate in the race against Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas ended his campaign Wednesday, leaving an independent candidate and a Libertarian candidate to face off against the three-term Republican incumbent.

Chad Taylor, a district attorney, informed the Kansas Secretary of State Wednesday that he is withdrawing from the race. Originally, his statement said "suspended," but the word was lined through and replaced with a handwritten "terminated."

Taylor issued a separate statement saying he made the decision after consulting with his staff, supporters and Democratic Party leaders. He did not give a reason.

Kansas.com reported Wednesday that Taylor's move could lead to broader support for the independent candidate in the race, Olathe businessman Greg Orman. There is also a Libertarian candidate, Randall Batson, of Wichita.

Roberts' executive campaign manager Leroy Towns called the move a "corrupt bargain" between Democratic leaders and Orman's campaign and said Orman's independent status is "a smoke screen."

Recent polling data from Real Clear Politics shows Roberts is favored to win the race in GOP-leaning Kansas.

However, a recent poll from Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling showed Orman had a 43 percent to 33 percent lead over Roberts if the race was just between the two of them.

On the other hand, if all three candidates were in the race, 32 percent of voters picked Roberts, 25 percent picked Taylor and 23 percent picked Orman, according to a Public Policy Polling poll.

Orman had positioned himself as Roberts' most formidable opponent, and his fundraising was more robust than Taylor's. Orman issued a statement calling Taylor "a committed public servant."

Orman, the co-founder of a business capital and management services firm, ran for Roberts' seat in 2007 as a Democrat but dropped out early in 2008. He said he grew unhappy with both parties.

On Wednesday, Orman received the endorsement of Traditional Republicans for Common Sense, a group of former moderate GOP state legislators unhappy with the party's conservative leanings.

COMMENT:  Looks like some kind of a backroom deal.  If Orman is elected, he'd probably caucus with the Democrats, his old crowd, possibly denying Republicans control of the Senate. 

The Republican drive to take over the Senate is hitting some bumps, but there's still a good chance that it can succeed.  There are states where the Dem candidates have run into unexpected trouble as well, like Alaska, Montana, and Louisiana.  The real action in the campaign starts this week.  The election is in two months.

September 4, 2014